Punxsutawney Charles is a commercial real estate broker who doubles as a developer in Nashville. He earned the nickname by being able to predict how the residential real estate market will fare in the near future.
The only shadows Punxsutawney has seen in Nashville over the past few years are those of cranes and new buildings scraping the sky.
Lately, Charles has had time to rearrange his desk, update his files and spend some time catching up with developers and clients across the country. His email box has slowed and the phone is not ringing. The only wringing in his brokerage firm comes from the hands of his brokers, who are suddenly quiet.
His proclamation that the market has come to a halt came prior to the Fed signaling it would not raise interest rates this week and days before the selloff in the stock market late last week and early this week.
It is safe to say that the boom is over.
No, prices will not fall. There will be no glut of properties for sale, but new construction will slow. Many local developers have known nothing but the strong market. They had better slow, lest they become familiar with men in black, flowing robes, sometimes known as trustees.
Things will fall into the realm of normalcy, and our servers at all of the local eateries will be able to tell of their upcoming multi-million dollar listings as they work alongside those who have songs on hold with Carrie Underwood and Luke Bryan. Optimism is grand.
At least some good will emerge from this environment, for the area will no longer provide fertile breeding grounds for the creeping crawlers that had invaded the Nashville real estate market.
Experts in the extermination of the varmints say they will become extinct soon. The creeping crawler is the upward spiraling price affixed to listings in the area.
The creatures are born when real estate agents are summoned by property owners to list their houses. Upon arrival, the agents brandish comparable sales in immediate proximity to the houses that they visit. At that point, the agent notes that the city was in a hot market, loaded with buyers and short on inventory, but not now.
The seller will have no part of this, even though GNAR numbers have pointed to this for months.
At that point the agent and the seller begin to discuss the price, and the comparative market analysis generated by Realtracs indicates the house in its current condition with its accumulation of the oh-so- important square feet would have a value of $337,836 as she sits.
The seller believes the market is still sizzling, so there should be no harm in listing for $349,900 to see what happens. The Realtor throws in a dash of positive reinforcement and suggests that there could be a bidding war.
Suddenly the creeping crawlers invade, usually in a swarm. A friend of the sellers suggests $365,000 would be a better number.
The crawlers have insatiable appetites and strike as soon as the agents leave the listing appointment.
Before the agent arrives at the next destination, the phone rings. The sellers have had an opportunity to discuss the matter and feel that the neighbor failed to take into account that the roof was new in 2012 and the cost of the new roof should be added to the list price.
By the way, the insurance company paid for the roof after the hail storm. And most buyers expect a roof to come with the house.
So the free, new $15,000 roof is added to the inflated $365,000 to give a new price of $380,000. The agent makes the adjustment and heads to the office to send the amended listing agreement to the sellers.
Upon receipt of the agreement, the sellers are once attacked by the creeping crawlers. “It doesn’t seem that it would hurt to go to $399,900, would it?”
Unfortunately, one of the symptoms of the attack of the crawlers is that the sellers have no memory of their actions. When the first offer comes in at $367,500, a number higher than the comps and the agent’s suggested price but a bit lower than the crawled-up list price, the seller explodes and chastises the agent for bringing such a paltry offer into the house. How dare he?
One way to kill the crawlers is for the market to soften, and soften it has. There is no place for crawling now. Overpriced listings are sitting.
There were more open houses last Sunday than any time in recent memory, and that was with a Titans home game.
You heard it here first via Punxsutawney Charles. It’s over. We are back to normal. And that’s not all bad. Normal works well in Nashville.
Sale of the Week
Built in 1986, the Clairmont condominiums never made headlines, were seldom, if ever, mentioned as appreciating at record paces or as being the best deal in town. Their unassuming presence has them blending in with the landscaping on a quiet section of Woodlawn Boulevard, rarely seen and barely noticed.
The unit known as 3027 Woodlawn had a rocky childhood as it was one of the victims of the Tax Reform Act-induced savings and loan’s crash in 1990 and was one of the properties absorbed by the Resolution Trust Corporation.
The home sold for $93,500 in 1991, then for $155,000 in 2001 and $193,750 in 2011. Just two years later, in 2013, it sold for $231,400. Now it has sold again for $307,500.
Last week’s sale was handled by two of the best in the business with Lisa Peebles representing the seller of the 1,578-square-foot, two-bedroom, two-bath abode with garages for two cars. Peebles notes the dwelling features updates in the kitchen and baths and has refinished hardwood floors.
Christopher Simonsen of Fridrich and Clark sings at about as many weddings as he sells houses. His melodious, booming voice can be heard serenading crowds as they celebrate unions. He can even make funerals bearable with his gift. Simonsen represented the buyer in this transaction.
When he is not singing, he is the voice of Habitat for Humanity on the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors Board of Directors, while Peebles is a patron of the arts.
Peebles listed the house, and Simonsen had it sold in a mere 13 days. That is how things go at the quiet Clairmont these days.
Richard Courtney is a real estate broker with Christianson, Patterson, Courtney, and Associates and can be reached at [email protected].