This entry will be my last submission penned while living in Asia, so rather than discuss the market’s recent wiggles, I thought I would share some top of mind takeaways as I prepare to depart Hong Kong.
The Asian Economy
The Asian economy is for real. Economic growth rates will vacillate cyclically, but the growth potential in regional per capita GDP ensures superior economic growth rates for decades to come.
In China, the communist dynasty has a pact with the Chinese people. They have the right to rule as long as prosperity rises. In response, neighboring countries must now frame their national success stories within the context of China’s national success story, heightening economic emphasis.
Chinese Leadership
Due to the consolidated nature of Chinese power, choices at the top dictate national fate. Mao Zedong wanted uncontested communism, so China purged individualism.
Deng Xiaoping wanted an open and industrious China, so China became the world’s largest exporter.
Xi Jinping now speaks of the Chinese dream, a strategic migration away from the pursuit of national achievements toward enabling individual achievements.
So far, Xi has demonstrated management acumen with liberalizing reforms and an historic anti-corruption campaign that makes him popular with the Chinese.
Even still, I worry about succession planning in China. Good CEO, good China. Bad CEO, bad China.
Investing in China
The mainland Chinese stock market is essentially off limits to foreigners. Even within China, participation numbers are low, with only about 10 percent of households invested in equities compared with 55 percent in the U.S.
However, as China opens its capital borders, more foreign and institutional money will help mature the emotive onshore marketplace. The more investable China becomes, the better the return prospects. The internationalized capital markets phase of China’s development has only just begun.
Chinese Military Ascent
Militarily, the Chinese do not want to supplant the United States of America. Acting as the world’s police officer costs the U.S. government trillions.
However, the friction within the South China Sea presents the first real strategic clashing of interests between China and the U.S.
The Chinese want to control their own regional destiny, while the U.S. wants to preserve its control of global shipping lanes. A political compromise between the two powers would establish a precedent of collaboration that would hearten all observers and reduce regional militarization. Collaboration, not containment, marks the best way forward with China.
Bottom Line
Reports of China’s impending economic death have been greatly exaggerated. China does have cyclical ailments, but its structural reform path will support longer-term growth.
I moved to Hong Kong a year ago in order to assess the Chinese “miracle” on site. Many perceive China’s rise as temporary and fictitious, just another national economic bubble like the many we have seen rise and fall in the past.
While there will be setbacks (crazy markets, visible overcapacity, notable defaults, etc.), the Chinese have the will and the means to rise.
David Waddell is president and CEO of Memphis-based Waddell & Associates.