Big Fat Greek Vote: On Sunday, the Greeks hit the polls to decide whether to remain in the euro or not. I wish it were that simple. The winner, Antonis Samaras, prefers that Greece remain in the euro, but wants to renegotiate bailout terms. That stance proved more appealing and pragmatic for the Greeks, who hate accountability but love the euro.
In all, 80 percent of Greeks would like to remain in the Euro Zone; but as my parents taught me, what we want and what we earn are often different things. Regardless of the victor, ultimately the odds of Greece remaining in the euro are low. With no good options, the Greeks simply voted on the dosage and immediacy of the pain that awaits them.
Heads You Win, Tails You Win
Forward-looking markets have moved beyond the current Greek quandary. Earlier last week, a bailout olive branch of 100 billion Euros extended to the Spanish government to extend to the Spanish banks to extend to the Spanish government created more confusion than confidence. For that reason, sovereign bond buyers, now unsure of their seniority, stopped buying, pressing Spanish and Italian bond yields to crisis highs.
Global central bankers responded by pledging support if necessary. This week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve FOMC will clarify whether they mean more action or more rhetoric. The potential outpouring of monetary affection has been the primary contributor to the 6 percent rally in the S&P 500 off of the June 4 low.
However, for those markets most acutely challenged, the gains have been even more encouraging. The Spanish IBEX has rallied 12 percent off of its low, while Greece has rallied nearly 20 percent. Looks like the odds-makers expect the central banks to respond forcefully no matter who runs Greece.
USA, USA, USA!
2011 taught traders that when the world gets anxious, U.S. Treasury bonds and defensive U.S. equities will outperform everything else. With the world trading on macro impulses rather than fundamental analysis, a “trade now, ask questions later” mentality has dominated.
This reflex action has created astonishingly wide performance disparities. The USA, for all its foibles, has completely dominated over the last five years. While world equities outside the US have fallen 19 percent over the last year, U.S. equities have returned 3 percent.
Among the 25 developed markets tracked within the MSCI Global Index database, the performance of US stocks ranks first over the trailing year, first over the trailing three years, and third over the trailing five years.
As an American, I am beaming with pride! As a global investor I am seething! Can this dominance continue? Unclear. What I can report is that the U.S. does not fare as well when risk appetites return. June’s surge has dropped the U.S. ranking to 15th place for the month, below the world average. A sustained bout of optimism, either manufactured by loose central bankers, stimulated by election results, or bolstered by resilient corporate profitability, appears to favor the foreigns.
David Waddell, who is regularly featured in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today and Forbes, as well as on Fox Business News and CNBC, is president and CEO of Memphis-based Waddell & Associates.