A failure years in the making

And it could take years for the Titans to become competitive again

Friday, January 5, 2024, Vol. 48, No. 1
By Terry McCormick

The so-called “competitive rebuild” the Tennessee Titans were aiming for in 2023 completely missed the mark.

The collaboration between head coach Mike Vrabel and general manager Ran Carthon that owner Amy Adams Strunk mandated when she brought Carthon on board to replace the fired Jon Robinson had a few hits in the draft and free agency, but not nearly enough for the Titans to remain on the cusp of contention.

In fairness, with a distressed salary cap situation last year and too many holes to fill, it was a task that had very little margin for error, and when moves like signing Andre Dillard to play left tackle backfired, it quickly became evident a bigger overhaul was going to be required.

With the Titans about to close out a dismal season missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season, the team is now faced with a full-on retooling of the roster that likely will take multiple seasons to complete – even with the club being armed with nearly $86 million of salary cap space and seven draft picks to work with in the offseason, per Spotrac.com.

Despite the cap space the Titans have available, it won’t immediately fix all their problems. First, potential free agents have to have an interest in the Titans, and vice versa. That might require overpaying at a position or two. Here’s an example of what that looks like.

There are a handful of good receivers heading to the free agent market, but if a player is looking for the right match, would he rather be catching passes from Patrick Mahomes with the contending Chiefs or helping with the development of Will Levis and the rebuilding Titans? Chances are, if the money is close to equal, that player would choose the Chiefs, meaning the Titans might have to pay more for the same player, diluting their cap space in the process.

Additionally, with the team in a 5-18 tailspin since being 7-3 and leading the AFC South in mid-November 2022, there is the question Vrabel’s job security. Top-shelf free agents might be reluctant to sign on with an unstable coaching situation.

An unpredictable owner

When Adams Strunk fired Robinson in December 2022, she decided Vrabel was, for better or worse, the man to get the Titans back on track. That the Titans have slipped farther off the rails this year is a concern, but Vrabel (now coupled with Carthon) will get a chance to fix things.

That said, Adams Strunk is known to be patient until she’s not. Her timing is her own, and only she knows when she has seen enough.

Robinson’s firing, a day after former Titan A.J. Brown torched his former team in Philadelphia, came out of nowhere – at least publicly.

Some of the owner’s other moves have come at peculiar times, as well. She fired Mike Mularkey the season after he had won a playoff game because Robinson wanted Vrabel, believing he could take the Titans to a higher level.

And she dismissed Ken Whisenhunt – deservedly so – after a particularly embarrassing performance in Houston in 2015 in which quarterback Zach Mettenberger was sacked seven times and literally crawled off the field after one hard hit.

Vrabel’s last stand

So assuming Vrabel is safe – but must show marked improvement in 2024 – exactly how do the Titans go about showing said improvement?

There also is the very real possibility that for the first time in his tenure as head coach, Vrabel might be coaxed into stepping out of the coaching staff with which he is most comfortable, replacing familiar friends with fresh eyes and perspectives from outside the organization, and not just former Texans and Patriots coaches.

Changes to the staff coming off back-to-back losing seasons should be expected rather than just running the same playbook with the same core coaches.

Vrabel also would need to veer away from blue-collar, grind-it-out offensive mentality. That approach might build locker room cohesion, but the Titans simply lack a lot of the athleticism, imagination and excitement that the best teams in the NFL have.

It’s good to have hardworking overachievers who buy in to your philosophy, but you also have to have athletic playmakers who change games with their explosiveness.

Can Vrabel – with Carthon’s help in personnel and some potential coaching changes – evolve his philosophy to give the Titans more of this?

Let’s start with a position-by-position breakdown of the roster, as to who fits in 2024 and how the holes that exist at these positions can be filled.

Quarterback

Levis was named the starter midway through the season when Ryan Tannehill was out with a high ankle sprain. The rookie second-round pick had a splashing debut with four touchdowns passes against Atlanta and showed enough flashes – despite poor protection and few offensive weapons – that the Titans believe they have their franchise quarterback. And with the biggest piece of the puzzle is in place – and on a cheap rookie contract – the other needs become easier to address.

But maximizing Levis’ talents would require overhauls at several other positions.

It’s time for the Titans to move on from the run-based attack that went through Derrick Henry, moving instead to a 21st century offense rooted in the passing game and providing faster, more athletic weapons to take advantage of Levis’ strong arm.

In terms of a backup quarterback, Tannehill is a free agent and likely won’t be back if there is a chance to compete for a starting spot somewhere else.

With a young pro in Levis, the Titans need a reliable veteran backup – something that was ignored when Tannehill was the starter – to fill in in case of injury. Players like Tyrod Taylor, Jacoby Brissett, Drew Lock or even Gardner Minshew could fill that slot. The Titans just need to find their price range and someone to fit it.

Malik Willis? Probably not. Willis, for one, is not a fit for what Vrabel wants to do offensively with a play-action vertical game. And even if Vrabel and Tim Kelly can be convinced not to be a conservative run-first team, Willis’ lack of pocket presence and field awareness doesn’t help his case for long-term viability here. Need proof?

With Levis injured and the Titans eliminated from playoff contention, Vrabel went to Tannehill, who has one foot out the door, to start instead of taking the chance to further evaluate Willis. The Titans might try to dangle Willis for a late-round pick this offseason. Barring that, he will have to fight for his roster spot in camp next summer.

Running back

Sentimental fans would like to see Henry stick around, even in a reduced role for the next year or two. And a solid case can be made for that, given that Henry probably has more value to the Titans than almost any other team in the NFL.

There’s also his pursuit of Eddie George’s franchise rushing record – he needs about 600 yards to break it – which would sell a few tickets during what could be a lean year or two in the rebuild.

But Henry or no Henry, the Titans’ immediate future at the position is the more versatile Tyjae Spears. While I’m not sold yet that Spears could be the next Alvin Kamara, he is the type of running back that the league is evolving toward in 2024.

If Henry doesn’t return, the Titans still need to find a complementary piece or two to go with Spears. Perhaps now that his injury and legal troubles are behind him, the Titans could salvage something from Hassan Haskins next year, though he hasn’t played since his 2022 rookie season, largely because of a 2023 summer arrest for allegedly assaulting his girlfriend, with the charges later dropped.

If not, running backs are an easy find these days, and even an undrafted free agent could fill a role.

Wide receiver/tight end

DeAndre Hopkins bucked the trend of Titans free agent wide receivers being flops once they got to Tennessee. The good news is Hopkins is under contract for another season, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be productive again, given the connection he developed with Levis.

Beyond “D-Hop,” the Titans are right back where they have been for most of their tenure here at wide receiver – needing playmakers. Treylon Burks and Kyle Philips, both 2022 picks, simply can’t be counted upon to stay healthy or produce consistently enough to benefit this offense over the course of a season.

That means the Titans need to find at least one (probably two) receiver in free agency and also might need to draft one who can play right away.

Speed is a dire need. Going back to that needed change in philosophy, the Titans have to get away from overvaluing wide receivers who can block. They instead need receivers who can change a game with two or three explosive plays using speed and the ability to run after the catch.

Fortunately, the free agent receiver list is strong this year. Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, Michael Pittman and Jauan Jennings are among those about to hit the market who could upgrade the Titans receiving corps.

Also, despite their obvious offensive line needs, if a generational talent like Marvin Harrison, Jr. is available with their first-round draft pick, Carthon has to strongly consider making that move.

Of the current receivers, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chris Moore are both free agents, and signing one of them back to be a back-of-the-rotation guy for cheap wouldn’t be a bad idea.

The Titans are OK at tight end but could still use an upgrade. Chig Okonkwo had problems with drops but is adequate. Rookie Josh Whyle showed some flashes, but a dynamic tight end could really benefit a young quarterback still finding his way. Again, despite the offensive line needs, if a talent like Georgia’s Brock Bowers is there for the Titans pick in the first round, it can’t be completely dismissed.

Offensive line

Where to start? The Titans thought their 2022 offensive line, which allowed 49 sacks and got Tannehill hurt twice, was bad. Then, they saw the 2023 line that surrendered 60-plus sacks and got both Tannehill and Levis injured.

It was not only funny and ironic, but completely appropriate, that Levis bought the linemen luggage for Christmas and Tannehill gave them watches. The joke writes itself: Get out of town and don’t be late for the bus.

The most obvious deficiency is at left tackle, where Dillard stole $29 million as a free agent last year and will now have his name atop the cap cut list once the offseason begins. Rookie Jaelyn Duncan, Nicholas Petit-Frere and Dillon Radunz all tried their hand at protecting the blind side, and none were particularly effective.

The only way to fix this problem is by finding long-term solutions in the draft. That means likely using the first-round pick on a left tackle.

As stated above, if an outstanding playmaker is available at the Titans pick in round one, they could be fortunate enough to get a tackle in round two since this is a deep draft. That also means trusting offensive line coach Jason Houghtaling and his staff to develop the newcomer.

At right tackle, the Titans could go into free agency or try to make do with either Radunz, Duncan or Petit-Frere, creating a camp competition to see who emerges. Chris Hubbard had actually done a decent job there but was injured and is a free agent.

Peter Skoronski figures to stay at left guard, despite struggling over the second half of the season. A full offseason of getting stronger should help.

At right guard, the Titans had Daniel Brunskill there for most of the season until injuries mounted. In the final few weeks, they’re looking at Calvin Throckmorton and Andrew Rupcich to see if either of them were worthy of roster spot in 2024. The Titans could keep Brunskill, but it is also possible they will move on and try someone else as part of the overhaul.

Center Aaron Brewer is a Vrabel favorite for his toughness and being an undersized guy who battles, described by the coach as “tougher than a $2 steak.” While that might be true, Brewer is a 6-ounce steak where the Titans need a 10-ounce steak.

The smart move here would be to move on and find a good, experienced, larger center in free agency to build the line around. It’s been done before here with Kevin Mawae and Ben Jones. Time to look for an anchor like that again.

Defensive line

The Titans gave Jeffery Simmons a big contract to make him a cornerstone of the defense. But other than a couple of standouts, they haven’t loaded up the defense with playmakers to take full advantage of Simmons’ considerable skills.

Case in point, this team has only four interceptions entering the final week. Simmons is a high-level player when healthy but needs more pieces around him.

One of those is Denico Autry, an impending free agent. It’s hard to justify re-signing a 33-year-old defensive end, but Autry works hard and is coming off a career year with 11.5 sacks. He should be a priority to bring back at the right price.

After Teair Tart’s questionable attitude made it necessary to allow his considerable talent to be shown the door, the Titans now find themselves a bit thin on the D-line. Reclamation projects like Jaleel Johnson, Marlon Davidson and Kyle Peko (before he was injured) might work, but an infusion of some young blood here along the lines of a Simmons or Tart couldn’t hurt.

Edge rusher

Starters at this position aren’t bad. After a slow start returning from an ACL injury that held him out all of 2022, Harold Landry has 10.5 sacks and is starting to justify the money the Titans paid him. On the opposite side, Arden Key has been inconsistent but occasionally flashes big plays.

Behind them the Titans have Rashad Weaver, who has struggled to set the edge in the run game but is a serviceable backup. It couldn’t hurt to add some numbers here in camp with a veteran or even a project draft pick, if there is enough draft capital to address other needs first.

Inside linebacker

This position has been a lot like running back with many teams using one-contract players here and then replenishing the spot with draft picks. Unfortunately, the well ran dry for the Titans when guys like Monty Rice didn’t pan out.

Tennessee elected to let David Long go to Miami, and his big-play knack was missed this season. Azeez Al Shaair, who signed a one-year deal, had a decent season and could be brought back.

If they do, the Titans should bring in a No. 1 inside linebacker and have Al Shaair be the second starter. Jack Gibbens manned that role until he was injured, and while he had the smarts the Titans like, he couldn’t hold up athletically. This is a spot where they should be able to find a plug-and-play a later-round pick who can man the spot for the next three or four years.

Secondary

The offensive line has gotten much of the attention as the worst position group on the team, but the secondary the Titans finished the season with might match them as the team’s neediest position group.

Starting cornerbacks Kristian Fulton (now on injured reserve) and Sean Murphy-Bunting are both free agents. The oft-injured Fulton won’t be back, and Murphy-Bunting is a possible returnee, depending upon whether an upgrade can be found in free agency. The inexperience of the backups here showed with Tre Avery and Eric Garror taking their lumps when pressed into action.

Former first-round pick Caleb Farley missed the entire year. He’s an easy guy to root for with all he has been through on and off the field, but anything the Titans get from him should be considered a bonus.

The lone bright spot here is nickelback Roger McCreary, who made improvements after a rough rookie year.

Like the offensive line, this group needs a makeover. That includes the safety position, where Kevin Byard was traded and Amani Hooker landed on injured reserve. Their replacements, Terrell Edmunds and K’Von Wallace, are both free agents and replaceable, meaning more reinforcements are needed.

Special teams

This unit was good from the standpoint of kicking with Nick Folk and punting with Ryan Stonehouse. But Folk is both a free agent and 39 years old. Will he want to keep playing, especially for a team in rebuilding mode?

Also, Stonehouse suffered a serious leg injury when the Colts flattened him on a punt rush and was lost for the season. It’s not known yet if he will be ready for the start of 2024. Plus, reliable long snapper Morgan Cox is a free agent and is 37 years old.

The return units were not impressive, and for a team that puts as much emphasis on special teams and using roster spots on specialized players for those units – guys like Anthony Kendall, Colton Dowell, Mason Kinsey who didn’t contribute much on offense or defense – the Titans haven’t been consistent enough on these teams. Craig Aukerman was fired after the Stonehouse debacle, and honestly, this is an area that needs a fresh set of eyes in charge.

Conclusion

The Titans are at a point again in their history where they have bottomed out. We have seen it before in 2004-05 and 2014-15. In both instances, it took about two years to dig out. Using that logic in a best-case scenario, the Titans probably could start to be competitive again by the middle of next year or in 2025.

That said, Vrabel needs to be able to showcase that improvement beginning next season, making this offseason an important one to seek out building blocks to add to the few they already have.

Also, the clock is ticking on the construction of the brand-new Nissan Stadium that is scheduled to open in 2027. Surely, the rebuild won’t take that long. If it does, neither Vrabel nor Carthon would survive to see the new facility.

But heading into that new building, the team has to begin the facelift now with the product on the field in order to have some momentum and excitement going into a new era.

And with so many holes to fill, the first steps toward fixing the current mess this offseason will be among the most important aspects of the process.

Terry McCormick covers the Titans for TitanInsider.com