One more crack in a scrambled supply chain

Egg shortage improving but still taking toll on restaurants, households

Friday, January 27, 2023, Vol. 47, No. 5
By Tom Wood

Faberge eggs, they’re not. But those Grade A Large oval-shaped jewels you buy at the grocery store – if you can find them on area shelves – are pretty darn expensive.

It’s not just Tennessee consumers who are grappling with the soaring price of eggs. The entire nation is feeling the pinch of rising prices, what internet memes are calling “eggflation.” But it’s no laughing matter.

A recent U.S. Department of Agriculture report states the avian flu outbreak that began in February has killed more than 43 million egg-laying hens, and a Center for Disease Control report says it has affected more than 57 million chickens in 47 states, including Tennessee.

Along with high demand for eggs over the holidays and other factors like the COVID-related labor shortage, the national average price for a dozen eggs has increased 198.8% from a year ago, the USDA reports.

But there’s some good news. The average price of a large dozen eggs in the U.S. fell 10.5%, the USDA’s Jan. 17 weekly report revealed, from $5.25 from the previous week to $4.70. But that’s still $1.37 more than the same week in 2021 ($3.33 per dozen).

The report also forecasts 2023 egg production will increase 4.3% from a year ago and that per capita egg consumption will rise 1.6% from 2022.

“The information is good in that the market hopefully has peaked, but the price lowering will trickle down sector by sector and will never be back to last year’s prices,” says Nashville restaurateur Randy Rayburn, owner of the upscale Midtown Café.

Dale Barnett, executive director of the Shelbyville-based Tennessee Poultry Association, agrees with Rayburn.

“The major food retailers and restaurant chains have long mandated the transition to cage-free egg production, with the timelines for this to occur nearing for many,” Barnett says “So based on that, egg prices will never go back to what they have previously been as the production costs are greatly escalating.”

While consumers have been hit hard by egg prices, it’s even tougher for restaurants and bakeries. Eggs aren’t cheaper by the dozens.

“If you rewind back a year, we were paying somewhere in the neighborhood of about $30 to $35 a case. And when I looked at the pricing (Jan. 17), it was anywhere between $75 and $98 a case, typically being a lot closer to that $100 mark,” says Craig Clifft, general manager at Nashville’s Elliston Place Soda Shop.

“It is a sliding scale; it does move quite a bit … mainly on a week-to-week basis. But as it started happening, it kind of came up and it almost happened overnight.”

Chef Max Pastor of high-end Midtown Café and John Benji Cook, owner of down-home Wendell Smith’s Restaurant, share similar horror stories about the price of eggs in Nashville. Keep in mind they typically go through several cases daily and thousands of eggs each month.

“Well, it seems very, very hard because the prices as we know them, they have been increasing a lot. Six months ago, we used to buy a case of 15 dozen (cage-free) shell eggs for $30. Now they cost $97,” Pastor says.

“Heck, at one time a couple of weeks ago, they were $170 a case (or $5.67 a dozen for 30 dozen large eggs). Now, we’re buying medium eggs for $100 a case ($3.33). They seem to be trending down at the moment but they’re so volatile — you know, they’re up, down,” Cook says.

“You think you’re getting a break and then – bam – they jump right back up on you. It’s just the world we live in these days. If it’s not eggs, it’s potatoes. Or roasts. It’s something all the time – if not more than one thing.”

Bettina Hamblin, owner of Knoxville eatery The Farmacy, says she buys locally sourced eggs and is paying about $36 per case (for nine dozen, or $4 per dozen).

“We haven’t seen an increase in the price of our eggs. But buying local is just generally more expensive. I mean, local eggs are typically three times the cost of just a generic egg,” Hamblin says. “So we’re used to paying that higher, premium price. But with this particular issue, we haven’t really seen an increase in pricing on our side as far as the price of eggs go.”

If things are tough for these four locally owned restaurants, imagine what it’s like for major restaurant chains like Cracker Barrel, Waffle House and for tourist destinations like Opryland Hotel and in Chattanooga, Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge, where thousands of eggs are consumed daily.

Low stock, high prices

New Instacart data shows the average price of eggs for its Tennessee customers is $5.61. A recent visit by the Ledger to Costco and four Nashville grocery chains (sometimes visiting more than one location) reveals both fluctuating prices – from $4.39 per dozen to $9.99 – and shelf space from nearly empty to fully stocked. A few highlights:

• The Charlotte Pike Kroger was well-stocked, and store-brand Grade-A medium eggs were $4.39 a dozen. Extra-large eggs were $4.69. Eggland’s Best Grade-A large were $5.69.

• On the other side of town in Donelson, shelves were mostly bare but posted prices were about the same. Prices for large brown eggs – of which there were none – were listed at $4.99.

• On the downtown Whole Foods’ barren shelves, there were only a few remaining packs of Latta’s Omega-3 organic eggs, priced at $9.69. Ditto Vital Farms’ organic restorative pasture-raised eggs, priced at $9.99.

• At the well-stocked Publix near Costco, a dozen store-brand jumbo eggs were $5.59, and brown eggs were $6.19. An 18-count pack of extra-large eggs cost $7.96.

• Costco carries only 24-count packs of the cage-free Grade-AA Kirkland brand. The two-dozen pack cost $6.49

• Aldi’s Grade-A large Goldhen eggs were $4.99 a dozen.

“The prices are so high these days,” says a Kroger shopper who didn’t want to be identified. “My son moved to Knoxville and bought four chickens that have just started to lay eggs, so perfect timing.”

Eggs as hobby or business

It’s easy to find vendors selling eggs at farmers markets across Tennessee. They’re often about the same as grocery store prices, but there is something appealing about buying fresh eggs.

Then others raise hens so they’ll have eggs for personal consumption.

Nashville’s Nina Fortmeyer falls somewhere in the middle. She raises egg-laying chickens mostly as a hobby but also sells eggs to friends.

She says the costs associated with raising chickens have gone up but that having fresh eggs – and the company of her fowl-feathered friends – is worth it.

“The price of feed has probably more than doubled in the last six months. A bale of wheat straw that you used to be $3.50 is, like, $14 now,” she says. “Ours are really for us and I sell them to friends. I’ll sell them probably when mid-February hits and they all start laying at once.

“I used to sell them for $4 a dozen and $5 a dozen. And now, the price of feed and hay and everything has skyrocketed. So I’m really not sure what it’s costing us anymore.”

Beyond having fresh eggs for breakfast, there’s that intrinsic value of raising chickens.

“I’m not sure if it’s cheaper. I haven’t compared. It is fun,” she says with a light laugh. “Mine all have names and they’re really pretty birds. Chickens are a lot smarter than people give them credit for … like if you take a walk, it will take a walk with you. They have personalities.”

Fortmeyer says raising chickens isn’t difficult and that she would encourage others if they have the space and treat it as a hobby rather than a business.

“I live in the country (and we) have a lot of space. (The chickens) have a coop, but they also have a large, fenced yard that is theirs,” she says. “We let them out for a couple of hours in the afternoon because it’s a time of day when there’s not a lot of predators. And it lets them completely free-range then.

“(Raising chickens) not like taking up photography as a hobby or painting or something. It is a commitment, just like having any other animals. (Chickens are) pretty low maintenance. So if there’s people who do it because they like birds and they like having them around. I would say yes, go for it.

“But if it’s really just because you don’t feel like buying grocery store eggs, I would say just wait it out. The avian flu will pass and eggs will get cheaper again.”