Whatever else might be said about Mayor John Cooper, it would be putting it kindly to observe that his political timing stinks.
With Nashvillians already reeling from a couple of economic body blows – a deadly and destructive tornado, followed by a crippling pandemic – Cooper delivered a brisk uppercut to the jaw: A property tax increase.
And not just a run-of-the-mill tax increase. The mayor’s words, in his first State of Metro address:
“Let me be direct. The budget ordinance that will be filed with the Council in April will sharply increase the property tax rate from its current historically low level. The final amount will be determined with the best information available, but it will be substantial.”
Rather than apologizing for making such a proposal during already trying times, the mayor cited those factors as contributing “challenges” that forced his decision.
Let me be direct now: The mayor is correct that Nashville needs a tax increase. But not because of the tornado and coronavirus. It needed one well before either of those events, and Cooper could have helped make it happen. He didn’t.
Travel with me now back to May. The city, having failed to adjust the tax rate in conjunction with a 2017 reappraisal, had gone seven years without an increase.
As a result – and despite a booming economy – the city was struggling to meet its financial obligations.
Accidental Mayor David Briley had proposed a $2.33 billion budget that projected roughly a $100 million hike in spending over the previous year.
He opposed a tax increase, instead relying on fiscal duct tape and putty to patch holes in the funding.
Councilman-at-Large Bob Mendes had been trying to build support for a 50-cent tax increase, roughly a 16% hike, calling it a necessary “rate correction.” He spoke in blog posts of a budget “built on quicksand” and projected a shortfall of $150 million for the years through Fiscal 2021.
His 50-cent proposal was calculated to avoid that shortfall.
When the Council addressed the budget in June, Mendes ended up supporting a budget proposed by fellow member Tanaka Vercher, the Council’s budget and finance chairwoman, calling for a 49.8-cent increase. It fell one vote short of passing.
Among those voting against it was Cooper, then an at-large member.
He maintained that anti-tax stance when campaigning for mayor over the next months. At a debate with Briley in August, he said this: “I’ve consistently (been a no vote) on taxes.” The problem, he said time and again, was not revenue, but mismanagement.
He started backtracking after his election, in January, when he said the option for a tax increase had been “left open.” By the time of his State of Metro address, he said there was “no option.”
“We can’t print money or borrow to cover our operating expenses. We must raise property taxes, as difficult as that is right now.”
I got in touch with Mendes again the other day to get his thoughts on how things might play out. He declined to speculate what Cooper might consider a “substantial” increase.
He did say he thought the need would be “definitely higher” than last year’s 50 cents, but didn’t want to venture a precise figure.
In general, though, he was not optimistic.
“I assume that due to Metro’s worst-of-any-big-city-in-America rainy day fund, the choices will end up being between a rate increase and severe cuts in government services,” he said.
Or, he added, both.
We’d still be in a mess even if a property tax increase had passed in June. But it would be less of a mess than we’re facing. And the increase would have passed, if Cooper had voted for it. It was one vote short.
Leadership isn’t about finally doing the right thing when our backs are against the wall. It’s about doing the right thing before then.
Joe Rogers is a former writer for The Tennessean and editor for The New York Times. He is retired and living in Nashville.