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VOL. 39 | NO. 3 | Friday, January 16, 2015

The Currency war is on! Here are the players

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War sounds scary. In the traditional sense, war evokes casualties and loss. For investors, currency wars simply convey economic redistribution.

For instance, if there were only two stores in town selling identical items, and one store raised prices while the other store lowered prices, demand would certainly follow the discount … but overall demand would be the same.

Think of global central banks as the pricing departments for their respective countries.

With sluggish demand and inflation pestering global economies, pricing departments have to become more aggressive to lure shoppers.

So don’t be scared, but be aware. Currency war games will direct markets in 2015.

Now let’s meet the combatants:

The European Central Bank – The Most Gun-Shy

It’s official, the Eurozone has slipped into deflation across the region. This places further pressure on the ECB to initiate a quantitative-easing program.

The rumor is that the Europeans have figured out the legalities, but we will not know for sure until the ECB goes public with their deflation plan on Jan. 22.

This is a huge date for the markets as the prospect of QE in Europe has fueled the rapid decline in the Euro, the 50 percent collapse in oil prices and the dramatic return of market volatility.

Should the Europeans fail to produce a plan, marketplace algorithms will reset and create even more volatility.

The ECB would like to win the currency war, they just don’t have a battle plan yet.

The Bank of Japan – The Most Resolute

The leading currency debaser on the planet is the Japanese Central Bank.

In fact Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ran on a platform of currency debasement to win the PM seat in 2012.

Since then, the Japanese yen has fallen 40+ percent against the U.S. dollar.

The economic results of this debasement have been less than encouraging, so the Japanese have scaled up their quantitative easing program further.

Never underestimate the military will of the Japanese. They play to win.

The U.S. Federal Reserve – The Most Disoriented

Based upon the most recent Fed minutes, voting members support the aggressive easing policies of their peers.

In other words, Fed officials favor foreign currency debasement and U.S. dollar strength.

However, they do appear somewhat concerned about the pace of appreciation. Without this concern, the language surrounding rate hikes in 2015 would undoubtedly be firmer.

Philosophically, the Fed prefers to let the invisible hand sort out currency conundrums.

As such, they seem committed to battle planning for inflation while the Japanese and Europeans conspire to steal our growth.

Bottom Line: The recent turbulence in the market stems from three competing central banks.

The ECB and the BOJ both desire weaker currencies and stronger growth.

The U.S. Fed feels exalted by the relative strength of the U.S. economy and capable of raising rates “just in case” inflation emerges.

The result of these competing priorities and uncoordinated action is higher levels of investor uncertainty and marketplace volatility.

Expect more of this in the coming year as central bank statements and body language direct currency, commodity, fixed income and equity reactions.

Overall, this does not suggest a “bad” year for investors, but the heavy presence of central banks makes forecasting winners and losers more difficult.

Best to be widely diversified, stay the course and watch the speculators hyperventilate.

David Waddell, who is regularly featured in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today and Forbes, as well as on Fox Business News and CNBC, is president and CEO of Memphis-based Waddell & Associates.

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