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VOL. 36 | NO. 27 | Friday, July 6, 2012
Relax: June market best since 1999
June: Boon & lampoon: After taking body blows in May, the stock market had its best June since 1999. This time, we can credit European politicians rather than American central bankers for the strong finish. That, my friends, is a welcome change.
Yet another European moment: Europe has embarked on nothing short of a revolution. The rationalizing of the European entitlement culture will take an enormous amount of time and effort. For that reason, we need to change the language we apply to the process.
There will not be a single “summit” that resolves all issues, but a series of “moments” as things progress.
With the inception of the euro in 1995, the participating nations (17 today) volunteered for a monetary union. Unfortunately, as each nation preserved its budget authority, responsibility for banking oversight and economic management style, the unity of the currency clashed with the disunity of everything else.
Now the participating nations recognize that for lasting euro credibility they must forge fiscal, banking and political unions, as well. Because these steps are taken so reluctantly, they require significant pressure from the markets.
Most recently, stress surrounding Spanish banks forced progress toward a banking union. By agreeing to a central bank regulator and direct bank capital injections, the Europeans have stepped further toward delinking bank credit issues from sovereign credit issues. This proves that Europeans do improve their aim as they target structural reforms.
This carnival of convergence may be ugly and slow, but it is moving in the right direction.
Markets commemorated this recent expression of intent by surging worldwide. In short, Europe needs to become rules-based, rather than “c’est la vie.” Some nations will volunteer and some will be forced by markets, but to access support programs, Germany will demand it. Markets can move politicians.
If Not This, Then What? Volatile markets and omnipresent politicians are the hobgoblins of our days.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, with a colored ticker in the corner of all your favorite news channels, has become our national mood ring. This vacillating barometer frays nerves. But to be fair, let’s compare the returns stocks and not-stocks year to date:
Stocks: S&P 500 index up 9 percent.
Not Stocks: Gold up 2, bond index up 2, commodities index down 7, hedge fund index up 2, master limited partnership index down 4, managed futures index down 4, home price index up 1.
So while your overexposure to fluctuations in the stock market might have you seasick, stocks currently float on the higher tide.
In considering “not stocks,” try to determine whether you are seeking better returns or less price visibility. If your house traded daily and the price fluctuated in the corner of every visible news channel, my guess is you would be a perpetual renter. This might reduce your anxiety, but it’s a bad long-run financial decision.
Don’t allow fatigue to corrupt your perception of returns. Volatility isn’t risk, it’s just volatility. What matters are the endpoints.
David Waddell, who is regularly featured in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today and Forbes, as well as on Fox Business News and CNBC, is president and CEO of Memphis-based Waddell & Associates.