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VOL. 36 | NO. 21 | Friday, May 25, 2012
Greek drama playing out on world stage
Flashback-ish Welcome back to 2011. Global growth jitters have returned, the U.S. has re-engaged in fiscal brinkmanship and the fate of the euro is back in question. Will 2012 be any different than 2011? Perhaps. This time Greece is not fighting to remain in the euro, it’s fighting to withdraw.
When in Greece Life is currently grim in Greece. The economy has been in recession for five years and the stock market is down nearly 90 percent from its high. Furthermore, this depression’s continuation is self-inflicted, as the Greeks attempt to abide by the European Union’s austerity dictate.
Should they tire of that, which they have, they can demand renegotiation of their rescue or they can Grexit, print drachmas and begin anew. Should Europe acquiesce to Greece’s new demands, the re-negotiations will never cease.
Should Greece quit the Eurozone, the pain the Greeks have been experiencing will intensify. Banks will begin issuing drachmas trading at a fraction of the euro. All of the benefits conferred by Eurozone membership will cease. Government spending cuts will decimate welfare allocations. Import prices will surge, limiting access to oil and household necessities.
Survival impulses will likely lead to looting, rioting and other markers of civil unrest. In the short term, Greece will resemble the “Lord of the Flies.”
However, as time passes and the drachma finds footing, tourism and foreign investment will flourish. Exports previously priced out of the market will become price competitive as everything Greek hits the sale rack. Competitive reforms may occur organically as survival motivates capitalist tendencies.
Unburdened banks and institutions can recapitalize and begin project financing. In short, a forest fire can bring new growth to Greece as it has for centuries in defaulted countries. The fire will be hot, but it will be quicker than the broil they are currently sweltering in. Both roads lead to the same destination … better to get there quickly.
Quit or Be Fired Greece needs to go. It’s better for everybody that they do. If Europe waits for the Greek election for a referendum on the austerity plan, they risk the Greeks abruptly quitting the euro, inviting mayhem. Losses are unquantifiable. Greek debt write-downs would further escalate EU bank insolvency issues. Furthermore, a potential run on EU banks would amplify capital shortages requiring the ECB to guarantee bank deposits.
Unlimited risk exposure at the ECB amounts to fiscal unification in Europe, opening the door for Eurobonds that pool European creditworthiness … essentially sticking Germany with the clean-up bill. Alternatively, if Europe produces a robust debarking plan (which they should have already!) then Greece may go silently into the night.
In my opinion, the following things must occur to resolve this peacefully: 1) the Germans must relent and ready the full monetary and fiscal gunships if necessary 2) they need to provide yet another funding installment to buy time to organize an orderly Greek departure 3) they must credibly firewall Spain and friends prior to decreeing … Greece, you’re fired. The time for half measures has passed.
David Waddell, who is regularly featured in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today and Forbes, as well as on Fox Business News and CNBC, is president and CEO of Memphis-based Waddell & Associates.