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VOL. 35 | NO. 46 | Friday, November 18, 2011




Hard to get excited about ‘1% off’ housing sale

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The National Association of Realtors (NAR) held its annual conference last week in Anaheim. The conference consists of a various factions from exhibitors to motivational speakers to meetings on governmental affairs. The overall mood of those in attendance was somber, but confidence that things are better.

A quick review of the past few years would reveal that in 2005 there were isolated areas such as Florida and Michigan that were beginning to feel rapid price declines while Nashville had record sales. The cries of those markets were heard, but not taken as an augury of things to come for all of us. By conference time in late 2006, the epidemic was spreading like wildfire, and we in Nashville were counting our blessings as it was the last of record years in this area.

By November of 2007, Nashville had begun to see some decline in the fourth quarter but had a record first two quarters. Then in 2008, all those in attendance were in various states of shock. Of course, many had been suffering for four years by then, but this seemed to be the end of life as we knew it.

By 2009 and 2010, pockets of the country were stabilizing and some were guardedly optimistic. The expiration of the first-time homebuyer tax credits had come and gone, and buyers continued to buy and sellers were selling, albeit at lower prices than in previous years.

One of the motivational speakers, Brian Buffini, suggested real estate practitioners should follow the advice of retailers and promote the fact that we are, in fact, having “sales.” He noted that sales people at department stores are thrilled when their products are marked down 25 percent, and that real estate buyers should feel the excitement of shoppers participating in a half price sale at Nordstrom’s.

“Yes, people!” he exhorted, “We are having sales!” And, for the seller who doesn’t want to respond to the market value of their homes, he had another department store analogy. When a seller of a $400,000 house has it listed for $500,000 and will reduce by $5,000, he suggested that a 1 percent off sale does not attract many buyers.

He did cite data that shows 50 percent of 2012 buyers will be first-time homebuyers. I would agree inasmuch as others are upside down in their houses and can’t sell. He also feels single women will account for 17 percent of the market, the largest segment.

While Buffini was dancing, the governmental and legislative affairs committees were moaning and groaning. And, as far as the Tennesseans are concerned, an unlikely villain was identified – our revered Sen. Bob Corker who, according to NAR staff, has proposed legislation that would eliminate GSEs such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and privatize all banking. The opinion in NAR’s mind is that such legislation would eliminate 30-year mortgages.

That would not be good and would send the market reeling. Some in his support felt this was a tactic that would eventually take government out of the housing arena.

There are other bills that seem to have some strength, one being the Qualified Residential Mortgage Bill that would require 20 percent down. If that passes, Sen. Corker can withdraw his bill as there will be so few mortgage loans made it really won’t matter if there are GSEs or not.

Richard Courtney is a broker with Pilkerton Realtors and the author of Come Together: The Business Wisdom of the Beatles and can be reached at [email protected]

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TNLedger.com Knoxville Editon
RECORD TOTALS DAY WEEK YEAR
PROPERTY SALES 0 0 0
MORTGAGES 0 0 0
FORECLOSURE NOTICES 0 0 0
BUILDING PERMITS 0 0 0
BANKRUPTCIES 0 0 0
BUSINESS LICENSES 0 0 0
UTILITY CONNECTIONS 0 0 0
MARRIAGE LICENSES 0 0 0