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VOL. 35 | NO. 37 | Friday, September 16, 2011
Realty Check
Nashville area enjoys ‘bump’ in August sales
The Greater Nashville Association of Realtors reported that sales for August of this year were up 28.4 percent over August of 2010, robust sales and a fittingly august increase. It has been years, if ever, since the area has experienced such a bump. Even more impressive is that pending sales are up almost 20 percent, which should lead to significant growth for September.
Sales for the year remain off 4.6 percent, but that is due to being forced to compare 2011 sales to 2010 sales, which included a first-time homebuyer tax credit that was widely utilized.
Since July, 2010, the sales numbers reflect the actual market and this growth is with the appraisal situation, the tightening of lending restrictions, the unemployment rate and uncertainty in the stock market. All of these 2,047 buyers had good credit, invested cash into their purchases, and, in many cases, all cash. In short, the threat of foreclosures on the new buyers is minimal.
Prices are on the rise with single family home median rising from $171,900 to $174,500, and that includes a bevy of short sales and foreclosures. With the expiration of the moratorium on foreclosures, there is an anticipated new wave of foreclosures, but the Cars issued in new wave music and they burned out relatively quickly, so perhaps this will as well.
One reason for the astronomical rise is that in August, 2010, there was a hangover from the aforementioned tax incentive expiration. The August sales were abysmal compared to the incented sales, and these dismal sales numbers influenced the sharp increase.
But 28 percent is 28 percent, and many were concerned after the sales dropped following the expiration of the tax credit fearing that the country or, in this case, the city could not sustain residential sales on its own. This is not the case.
The fact that the area is experiencing more than 2,000 transactions a month is positive and is a number many doubted would return so quickly. After all, in the greater Nashville area there were 24,246 sales in 2008, followed by 21,183 in 2009 and 19,898 in 2011. With sustained sales, the area could reach the 2008 level this year.
Now for that darn perspective. While achieving 2008 sales figures – 24,246 transactions is a lofty, yet attainable goal – would be great, the sales numbers in 2006 and 2007 were 40,046 and 34,221, respectively.
Veteran Realtor and GNAR past president Christy Wilson, principal broker for the Wilson Group, feels the market has bottomed and will reach 2006 numbers in 2018 if there is stable 3 to 5 percent growth each year.
This stability allows for steady, consistent appreciation from the savings and loan crisis in the late 1980s, early 1990s through the recession of 2008/2009 and, under normal economic conditions should continue until the next calamity.
Richard Courtney is a broker at Pilkerton Realtors and the author of Come together: The Business Wisdom of the Beatles and can be reached at [email protected]