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VOL. 35 | NO. 34 | Friday, August 26, 2011
Realty Check
Despite rates, it’s a terrible time to buy a house
Interest rates have dropped again, and home prices have stabilized, perhaps experiencing a slight uptick. The word historically has become an overused adjective when modifying the word rate. Yet the market is experiencing once again historically low rates, below 4 percent.
Another sentence reaching cliché status is “Now is the best time to buy a home.” And, I’ll have to admit, I was all in on that one. It seems logical enough. Low rates, low prices, good time to buy.
Then I had a conversation with a highly regarded principal broker of a commercial real estate firm. During our discussion, another word emerged – perspective. Although he is in the commercial real estate business, he owns a home that he is trying to sell. He feels that now is not the best time to buy a house. Not only that, it may be the worst time to buy a house. And he is right.
While the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors reported great news last month – sales up 16 percent without the assistance of federal tax incentives was positive – the number of sales was drastically low as compared to 2006 or even 2004.
Now for the bad news. The Nashville area had more than 40,000 sales in 2006. That same area, although experiencing growth as compared to last year, will be lucky to crack 20,000 sales this year. For some reason, these low rates and low prices are not spawning buyers.
Here’s why. There is no money available for down payments, and that is a requirement now. Investing cash in a property is, of course, a sound mandate. It gives the owner a vested interest in the property with the lender and provides incentives for owners to maintain the properties and to make the payments as arranged during the purchase.
From 1991 through 2006, if a homeowner decided to sell his house he would have accumulated equity in his home through mere market appreciation in this area 3-10 percent per year. The stock market has done well during that time, so the 401K was in good shape, and maybe there was some cash on hand in the bank. And at least 94 percent of the people in the country that wanted to earn wages had jobs
During that time period, it was quite simple for a person to buy a home. He put his house on the market, made a profit, invested some or all of that profit in the new house and carried on. The Realtor bought advertisements all over the area, bought signs for the yard and procured inspections and appraisals. Title companies prepared documents, surveyors were hired and a loan secured. It was raining cash. Not in the Pacman sense, either.
In many cases, the homes were new construction that required trucking lines to transport material from factories such as drywall, nails, flooring, appliances, HVAC systems, seed and straw. Trades people were hired to construct or install. There were more jobs than there were people, and buyers were everywhere.
Now money is cheap because there are no borrowers, and prices are low because there is no demand for the product. There is no equity in most houses, almost none of those bought in the past eight years.
The stock market has everyone scared too, and retirement seems to be a word headed for obsolescence. With no cash and strict lending requirements, not only is it not the best time to buy, it is an almost impossible time to buy.
That damn perspective.
Richard Courtney is a broker with Pilkerton Realtors and the author of Come Together: The Business Wisdom of the Beatles. He can be reached at [email protected] or the Jefferson Street Bridge if you hurry.